Opinion polls are surveys of intent for a sample of voters, while future results allow participants to negotiate and discuss opinions based on a particular outcome. Candidates and the media often use polls in election campaigns to determine which candidates are in the lead and who are likely to emerge victoriously. Individual economic, social, and psychological costs and voting benefits are well known. Perhaps, the debate on voting is the subject of the most studied political behavior. Citizens will participate if they receive benefits commensurate with the cost of participation. Participation in political life requires citizens’ attention, time, knowledge, money, and motivation. To study the influence of various parameters on these thresholds and to identify the most influential parameters, a global sensitivity analysis is carried out based on the partial rank correlation coefficient method and the Latin hypercube sampling. Finally, we also perform several computational and statistical experiments to validate the theoretical results obtained in this work. We show that the existence and stability of these equilibria are controlled by the calculated thresholds.
We perform the stability analysis of equilibria to determine under which conditions these equilibrium points are stable or unstable. Then, we use the next-generation matrix method to compute thresholds of equilibrium stability. We first present the model and its different compartments. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model that describes agree-disagree opinions during polls.